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Landscape Ecology

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Landscape Ecology's content profile, based on 12 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Disturbance and landscape characteristics interactively drive dispersal strategies in continuous and fragmented metacommunities

Gelber, S.; Tietjen, B.; May, F.

2026-03-17 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.13.711669 medRxiv
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Habitat fragmentation, driven by human activities, disrupts habitat connectivity and alters ecological processes through geometric and demographic fragmentation effects. Dispersal plays a fundamental role in shaping the distribution, abundance, and persistence of species in modified landscapes. While previous research looked at the evolution of dispersal strategies at the species level, community-level dynamics remain underexplored. Species exhibit diverse dispersal strategies to persist in modified landscapes, yet predicting how these strategies interact at the community level requires a more integrated approach. This study employed an individual-based simulation model to explore how fragmentation and other landscape characteristics influence community-level dispersal strategies. We tested the effects of varying fragmentation levels, environmental autocorrelation, habitat amount, and disturbance levels on the emerging distribution of dispersal distances within a community in modified and continuous landscapes. We hypothesised that fragmentation and other spatial patterns would significantly shape community composition, favouring particular dispersal strategies under specific environmental conditions. The findings reveal that higher disturbance levels and greater habitat amount increased the community-weighted mean of dispersal distance, while fragmentation showed only minor variation. Additionally, low autocorrelation was associated with the highest community-weighted mean of dispersal distance. These results highlight the importance of considering community-level dynamics when predicting ecosystem responses to landscape modification. By clarifying how landscape structure and disturbance shape community-level dispersal strategies, this study advances our understanding of the mechanisms underlying species persistence and community structure in modified landscapes.

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Landscape heterogeneity as a main driver of avian population dynamics

Malinowska, K.; Chodkiewicz, T.; Kuczynski, L.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.726359 medRxiv
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The ongoing decline in biodiversity highlights the need for understanding the causes of population changes. This study uses 25-year, large-scale monitoring dataset to investigate the influence of climate and landscape structure on the annual population growth rates of 84 bird species across Poland. Our methodological framework involves the spatiotemporal decomposition of these environmental drivers to decouple demographic effects of long-term carrying capacities from the short-term effects of environmental perturbations. Using species-specific demographic models followed by a community-wide meta-analysis, we evaluated how individual species responses scale up to shape community-level dynamics. The results reveal significant variation in species-specific responses to individual drivers. At the community level, our findings suggest that bird populations are mainly regulated by the long-term spatial constraints rather than short-term disturbances. Persistent environmental heterogeneity had the strongest positive demographic effect on birds, followed by temperature, forest dominance over croplands, and precipitation. In contrast, rapid temporal shifts in environmental heterogeneity and precipitation anomalies negatively affected population growth, whereas urbanisation consistently exerted a negative effect across both spatiotemporal dimensions. Our results highlight the significance of protecting existing heterogeneous and ecotonal habitats, as well as the need to incorporate features that enhance habitat heterogeneity into urban development. Article impact statementPreserving heterogeneous habitats is essential for the conservation of bird populations.

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How Five Decades Of Land-Cover Change Reshaped Suitable Habitat For Puerto Rican Tree Species

Moro, L.; Milesi, P.; Helmer, E.; Uriarte, M.; Muscarella, R.

2026-03-24 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.21.710527 medRxiv
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AimHuman land-use has dramatically altered the amount, quality, and connectivity of habitat for species worldwide. Understanding how these changes affect individual species is essential for predicting the overall consequences of land-use change for biodiversity. LocationThe Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. Forest cover on the island increased from about 18 to 45% from the late 1940s to the early 2000s. MethodsUsing data on geographic distributions and functional traits for 454 tree species, we evaluated how gain of potential habitat was related to species-specific climatic associations and life-history strategies. We estimated species-specific potential habitat (climatically suitable and forested) with species distribution models and data on forest cover. We characterized each species niche breadth (the range of environmental conditions it occupies) and niche position (the environmental conditions it prefers) to compare with the conditions in reforested areas. ResultsSpecies with relatively more potential habitat in 1951 (climatically suitable and forested) also had relatively larger gains in potential habitat from 1951 to 2000. Species that tend to occupy conditions different from those common in reforested areas (i.e., more marginal habitats) gained relatively less potential habitat and species with broad environmental niches gained more potential habitat. Additionally, species with relatively acquisitive functional traits gained more suitable habitat than those with relatively conservative traits. Main conclusionsOur results show that Puerto Ricos reforestation preferentially increased habitat for species that (1) already had suitable habitat in the landscape, (2) tolerate a wide range of climatic conditions, and (3) exhibit fast, acquisitive functional strategies. These findings illustrate how land-use change in heterogeneous tropical landscapes can generate non-uniform habitat gains across species, potentially favoring generalist over specialist species and reshaping community composition.

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Body size and cranial shape differentiation in urban and rural house mice (Mus musculus domesticus)

Kupchella, S. C.; Kort, A. E.; Phifer-Rixey, M.

2026-05-16 zoology 10.64898/2026.05.16.725634 medRxiv
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Cities are characterized by elevated temperatures, increased pollution, and high-density human populations which often are accompanied by changes in available resources, like food. These shifts have the potential to drive phenotypic divergence in urban wildlife. Functional morphological traits, like body size, can mediate interactions between wildlife and habitat and are closely tied to life history and fitness. While examples of functional morphological variation associated with urbanization are increasing, variation in such traits as a response to urbanization remains unexplored for most taxa. Here, we investigated morphological divergence between urban and rural populations of house mice (Mus musculus domesticus). House mice are globally distributed in diverse habitats and are a model system with a wealth of phenotypic data, making them useful for the study of the impacts of urbanization on morphology. Using a paired replicate design, we sampled urban and rural populations in three distinct metropolitan regions in the eastern United States. We found that body size was smaller in urban populations. Using 3D geometric morphometrics, we also analyzed variation in cranial shape across habitats. Differences in cranial shape were largely allometric, that is, driven by differences in body size. However, we also uncovered evidence of cranial shape variation between habitats not explained by size. In contrast, we did not find evidence for habitat-driven differences in cranial capacity independent of size. Overall, our results suggest a key role for body size in mediating morphological responses to urbanization and highlight the potential of house mice as a globally-distributed model for urbanization.

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Energy and heterogeneity shape bird taxonomic and functional gamma-diversity patterns across landscapes in Finland

Cours, J.; Lehikoinen, A.; Burgas, D.; Heikkinen, R. K.; Elo, M.; Versluijs, M.; Duflot, R.

2026-04-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.13.717752 medRxiv
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AimOur aim was to study the effects of energy availability and landscape habitat heterogeneity on bird taxonomic and functional gamma-diversity and propose conservation guidelines based on the results. LocationSouthern and Central Finland Time Period2009-2020 Major Taxa StudiedBirds MethodsWe derived biodiversity variables from bird monitoring line transects to assess the effects of latitude, longitude, and landscape composition, configuration, and heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales: 100, 500, 2,000, and 5,000 m. We tested the effects of these landscape metrics on the total community, bird ecological guilds (species richness and abundance), functional diversity, and overall species specialization index. ResultsWe found clear evidence supporting a positive effect of energy (latitude and soil fertility) and habitat amount on bird abundances. Our results also revealed a northward increasing trend in functional diversity and species specialization. Habitat heterogeneity positively affected both bird abundance and species richness. Heterogeneity of land cover types was shown to promote abundances, while functional measure of landscape heterogeneity was positively connected to species richness. Land use with high anthropogenic activities, such as urban areas and cropland, negatively affected forest specialists and species sensitive to human activities. Main ConclusionsEnergy and habitat heterogeneity and amount are major mutually nonexclusive factors shaping bird communities in Finnish landscapes. Nonetheless, certain land use types favour some guilds while excluding others (for example, urbanized areas or cropland favouring open area species while excluding old-growth forest specialists), showing that biodiversity conservation is a matter of specialized landscapes. Furthermore, different measures of landscape heterogeneity demonstrated positive relationships with the studied bird guilds, highlighting the consistency of the species-heterogeneity relationship.

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A holistic survey of small mammal diversity across an iconic Madrean Sky Island (Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona, USA)

Rowsey, D. M.; Smith, S. M.; Zamora Chavez, L. J.; Rivera, D. C.; Hess, S. C.; Jones, M. F.; Bucci, M. E.; Mohammadian, S.; Alston, J. M.; Baez, J. R.; Vargas, K. L.; Upham, N. S.

2026-03-18 zoology 10.64898/2026.03.15.711934 medRxiv
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The Santa Catalina Mountains are an iconic member of the Madrean Sky Islands, rising above Tucson, Arizona, USA, where the Catalina Highway connects Sonoran desertscrub to stands of conifer forest nearly 2,800 meters in elevation. As one of the [~]54 forested mountain areas in this system, the Santa Catalinas host unique biotic communities relative to the surrounding lowlands. However, most of these sky islands lack the surveys of resident small mammals (either historical or recent) needed for studying biodiversity in the context of changing climate and habitat use. From 2021 to 2023, we surveyed 10 localities on the north and south slopes of the Santa Catalina Mountains using holistic sampling methods to document terrestrial small mammal diversity and preserve multiple tissue types. Here we summarize these new collections relative to previous voucher specimens and human observations, identifying gaps for future work to address. Our survey recorded the presence of 15 species, preserved 150 voucher specimens paired with a suite of flash-frozen tissues, and non-lethally sampled another 219 individuals (ear tissue, feces, ectoparasites, and measurements) to provide populational data from sites where vouchering occurred. Despite the road accessibility and long history of sampling in the Santa Catalina Mountains, our surveys extended the known elevational range for 8 species, including the first known specimen of Reithrodontomys fulvescens from the area. Our use of a transect-based survey design, which maximizes species diversity across biotic communities, paired with holistic specimen preservation techniques, provides a model for surveying patterns of population genetic and parasite sharing relationships across other Madrean Sky Islands, bridging a [~]40 year lull in specimen preservation while adding new data dimensions that promote integrative studies of small mammal biodiversity. With more complete sampling, other mountains will offer promising replicates for studying eco-evolutionary impacts of the regions episodic habitat connectivity. Teaser textSurveying the terrestrial small mammals of the Santa Catalina Mountains, part of the Madrean Sky Islands, we analyze modern occurrences relative to previous records and demonstrate the potential value of holistically surveying sky island small mammals.

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Navigating a dynamic winterscape: habitat composition and individual variability shape daily movement in wintering common cranes in western India

Baraiya, H. L.; Baroth, A.; Kumar, R. S.

2026-05-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.17.725127 medRxiv
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BackgroundWintering migratory birds must balance energetic requirements, resource availability, and disturbance in increasingly human-modified landscapes. However, individual-level variability in daily movement and winter space use remains poorly understood in South Asian populations of the common crane. We investigated how seasonal dynamics, landscape composition, and individual differences structure winter movement ecology in a semi-arid agro-wetland system in western India. MethodsWe analysed high-resolution GPS telemetry data from multiple tagged cranes tracked across three consecutive winters. Daily movement distances were modelled using mixed-effects approaches to partition variance within and among individuals and among winters. Daily movement trajectories were evaluated using non-linear temporal terms. Landscape predictors, including cropland proportion, built-up area, and habitat heterogeneity, were incorporated to assess environmental drivers. Winter range distributions were estimated using autocorrelation-informed kernel density estimation within a continuous-time movement modelling framework. ResultsMost variation in daily movement occurred within individuals rather than among them, indicating strong behavioural flexibility. Interannual differences explained substantial variance, suggesting sensitivity to changing environmental conditions. Daily movement distance followed a non-linear seasonal pattern consistent with shifts in the profitability of agricultural resources over winter. Cropland proportion and landscape evenness were negatively associated with movement distance, whereas a high proportion of built-up areas increased daily movement distance, reflecting a trade-off between resource concentration and anthropogenic disturbance. Winter range distribution size varied markedly both within individuals across years and among individuals within seasons. ConclusionWinter movement and space use in common cranes are predominantly context-dependent and environmentally driven. Seasonal dynamics, agricultural landscapes, and human disturbance jointly structure movement patterns, with limited but consistent individual differences. Multi-year, individual-based telemetry provides a comprehensive understanding of winter spatial strategies in dynamic semi-arid agro-wetland systems.

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Estimating habitat-constrained home range size in semi-aquatic mammals: a case study on the critically endangered European mink (Mustela lutreola).

Bodinier, R.; Aulagnier, S.; Bressan, Y.; Beaubert, R.; Fournier-Chambrillon, C.; Devillard, S.; Fournier, P.

2026-04-15 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.13.718143 medRxiv
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Accurate home range knowledge is essential for conserving species that are highly dependent on certain types of habitats. The critically endangered European mink (Mustela lutreola) is a wetland specialist whose movements are constrained by riparian and wetland habitats. In dendritic landscapes, conventional home range estimators such as Minimum Convex Polygons tend to include unsuitable habitats in estimated home ranges. Using VHF telemetry data from 16 individual-years tracked in France between 1996-1999 and 2020-2022, we compared four methods: Kernel Density Estimator (KDE), an adaptative sphere-of-influence local convex hull (a-LoCoH), a newly developed Ecological Home Range method (EHR), and a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) approach integrating hydrographic covariates. Our objective is to determine which method best accounts for the European minks specialization in wetlands, considering the spatial distribution of locations. Evaluation with wetland-specific metrics showed KDE consistently overestimated range extent and included unsuitable habitats, and a-LoCoH yielded mixed results, but these indicated that the method was not effective in excluding unused habitats. It was EHR and GAM methods that aligned more closely with ecological constraints. We therefore recommend GAM because it matches our objective and has the capacity to integrate additional environmental variables. Using the GAM, male home ranges averaged 3,074 ha--26 times larger than female ranges (116 ha)-- and were significantly larger in river than marsh landscapes. These are the largest ranges reported for the species. Large spatial requirements heighten vulnerability to road fatality and predation, both significant threats for remaining French populations. Our findings highlight the need for conservation strategies that integrate precise, habitat-based range estimates. The GAM method offers a robust, adaptable framework for managing European mink and other semi-aquatic species in complex landscapes.

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Is a dam-altered river in the U.S. Southwest a barrier to dispersal for populations of a common lizard, Uta stansburiana?

Corsetti, T. C.; Walker, F. M.; Holton, P. B.; Sanchez, D. E.; Allan, G. J.; Lyman, J. A.; Chambers, C. L.; Beier, P.

2026-04-21 zoology 10.64898/2026.04.17.719235 medRxiv
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Dams can significantly alter natural riverine systems, but their impact on movement across rivers for most terrestrial vertebrates is poorly known. The completion of Glen Canyon and Flaming Gorge dams in Arizona and Utah (southwestern United States) profoundly changed the Colorado and Green Rivers and have altered habitat for many species. The common side-blotched lizard (Uta stansburiana) offers an excellent opportunity to examine the effects of riverine impoundments on migration and gene flow in terrestrial biodiversity. To assess these effects, we collected tissue samples from 241 Uta stansburiana above and below Glen Canyon Dam and on both sides of the Colorado river at three separate study areas. We used eight microsatellite loci to estimate genetic exchange in the context of genetic diversity and structure. One study area below Flaming Gorge Dam and above Glen Canyon Dam has annual periods of warmer water temperatures and lower flows that are closer to pre-dam conditions, whereas two study areas below Glen Canyon Dam have cold water temperatures year-round, and less pronounced seasonal low flow episodes. We predicted that warmer water temperatures above Glen Canyon Dam would promote greater genetic exchange among populations than below the dam. However, we found evidence for low levels of genetic exchange between sites both above and below Glen Canyon Dam, and a moderate amount of exchange at a site below this dam where lizards could conceivably move from one side to the other. Our results imply that 1) the changes in water temperature and hydrology in dam-altered rivers are a barrier for this species even when the distance from the dam is great; and 2) genetic exchange may be dependent on river morphology. These results are relevant to other small vertebrates, particularly ectotherms, that occupy habitat proximal to a dammed river and has implications for the conservation management of impounded river systems.

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How urban vegetation influences dynamics of Aedes albopictus egg density: three years of surveillance in Montpellier (France)

Bartholomee, C.; Sutter, C.; Fournet, F.; Bouhsira, E.; Moiroux, N.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.15.725325 medRxiv
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Nature-Based Solutions are increasingly promoted to address current urban challenges. While their potential effects on vector-borne disease risks have been documented, data on Aedes albopictus, a known arbovirus vector, remain limited in France. A previous study showed that urban vegetation moderately increases the abundance of adult mosquitoes of this species, but the monitoring period lasted only six months. Using ovitraps, we monitored Ae. albopictus egg density dynamics over multiple years (2022 to 2024) and analysed its environmental predictors in various urban environments. We included lagged meteorological variables, land cover metrics, and the cumulated egg densities recorded in the previous weeks as environmental predictors. Both parametric (GLMM) and non-parametric (Random Forest) models were fitted to weekly egg counts per trap. Our findings highlight that (i) egg density dynamics were related to how vegetation classes structured the landscape, (ii) growing degree days and cumulated number of eggs recorded in specific lagged time windows were the main contributors to egg density, and (iii) the non-parametric and parametric models performed similarly in terms of prediction accuracy.

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Landscape-scale grassland structural heterogeneity and disturbance regimes influence swamp deer habitat utilisation across the upper Gangetic plains, India

Paul, S.; Saha, S.; Page, N. V.; Pandav, B.; Mondol, S.

2026-04-23 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.20.719689 medRxiv
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Large herbivores play a vital role in shaping grassland ecosystems, yet many species face increasing threats from habitat loss, fragmentation, and human disturbance. In northern India, riverine grasslands of the Gangetic floodplains serve as essential habitats for such species, including the swamp deer (Rucervus duvaucelii duvaucelii), a habitat specialist that has experienced severe population declines, especially outside protected areas. We evaluated the structural vegetation composition of grasslands and swamp deer habitat use along the Ganges river, covering both protected regions (Jhilmil Jheel Conservation Reserve and Hastinapur Wildlife Sanctuary) and surrounding non-protected grasslands. Combining field-based vegetation surveys with NDVI-based remote sensing enabled the classification of grasslands into four ecologically significant types structured by Saccharum, Phragmites, and Typha species. Disturbance was prevalent across the landscape, with approximately 77% of grassland plots exhibiting signs of human impact. Pure Saccharum grasslands exhibited the highest disturbance levels, followed by mixed patches, while Phragmites-Typha patches showed the lowest disturbance. Conversely, Phragmites-Typha patches experienced the lowest levels of disturbance. Data from surveys and two radio-collared swamp deer indicated a consistent preference for mixed vegetation types, particularly Saccharum-dominated and Phragmites-Typha mixes, while avoiding heavily disturbed pure Saccharum patches. Seasonal changes in habitat use reflected context-dependent selection influenced by vegetation structure, hydrology, and disturbance regimes. Our results underscore the importance of conserving diverse grassland mosaics and reducing human pressures, especially in unprotected areas to promote the long-term survival of swamp deer and other grassland herbivores within the Gangetic floodplains.

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The lost vultures of Romania: reconstructing two centuries of decline from historical records (Gyps fulvus, Aegypius monachus, Neophron percnopterus, Gypaetus barbatus)

Osvath, G.; Denes, A. L.; Kovacs, Z.; Birau, A. C.; Papp, E.; Jako, G. V.; Zeitz, R.

2026-05-18 zoology 10.64898/2026.05.13.723308 medRxiv
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Romania represents one of the few European Union member states in which all four Old World vulture species historically maintained breeding populations: the Griffon Vulture (Gyps fulvus), Cinereous Vulture (Aegypius monachus), Egyptian Vulture (Neophron percnopterus) and Bearded Vulture (Gypaetus barbatus). Until the 2026 reintroduction efforts initiated by Foundation Conservation Carpathia and Rewilding Romania, Romania remained the last EU country whose former vulture guild had not been targeted for active recovery. Despite this exceptional significance in a European conservation context, no comprehensive synthesis of the historical and contemporary distribution of these species in Romania has been undertaken. We conducted a comprehensive review to gather all available vulture occurrence data and present a fully georeferenced database of 1,170 occurrence records spanning 1818-2025. We systematically searched museum collections, historical ornithological literature, modern field surveys and citizen-science platforms. The database documents substantial breeding populations across the Carpathian arc and Dobrogea until the early twentieth century, followed by near-total breeding collapse between the 1920s and 1960s driven by persecution, secondary poisoning and agrarian transformation. In total, 149 confirmed or probable breeding records have been documented for the four species combined, with the most recent confirmed breeding records dating to 1929 (Gyps fulvus), 1929 (Gypaetus barbatus), 1942 (Aegypius monachus) and 1966 (Neophron percnopterus). Non-breeding occurrences increase markedly after 2010, consistent with dispersal from expanding Balkan source populations. The F[a]g[a]ra {square} and Retezat Mountains emerge as the historically most important breeding strongholds for all four species. Our dataset constitutes the most detailed historical baseline currently available for vulture conservation in Romania and is intended to identify key historical sites with high potential for future reintroduction and recovery. Our results show that Romania historically supported the full guild of European obligate scavengers, and that its collapse occurred within barely four decades (1920s-1960s). The dataset highlights the value of reconstructing historical baselines in regions where functional extinction preceded the onset of modern monitoring, and provides an empirical foundation for reassembling a keystone scavenger guild at a continental scale.

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How comparable across management goals are grassland monitoring methods?

Messick, H.; Lichtenberg, E. M.

2026-05-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.18.726054 medRxiv
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QuestionsEcological monitoring, repeated collection of ecological data, is essential to document how ecosystems respond to change. In grasslands, different vegetation monitoring protocols are used across disciplines, making it difficult to address multiple management objectives or research questions. We asked four questions about how three common vegetation monitoring protocols compare. (1) How do the protocols differ in how they collect data? (2) How do the protocols differ in their utility? (3) In what ways do vegetation measurements quantitatively differ across protocols? (4) What are each protocols strengths? LocationThis study was conducted on working ranches in the Southern Great Plains with vegetation consisting mainly of native forbs and grasses. MethodsWe implemented three protocols at each site: (1) the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), (2) the Grassland Effectiveness Monitoring (GEM) protocol, and (3) a typical pollinator ecology survey protocol. We qualitatively compared each protocols utility and quantitatively compared cover measurements that each produced. ResultsAll three protocols displayed positive associations within cover categories, but differed in actual cover measurements. The RAP protocol, which uses remote sensing, measured the highest total vegetation cover. The GEM protocol, a line-point intercept method, had more capability to capture fine-scale cover patterns. The GEM protocol measured the most bare ground while the Pollinator protocol measured more forb coverage. ConclusionFine-scale methods like the GEM protocol are most appropriate to address objectives that require capturing small patterns that would otherwise be overlooked with methods like quadrats or remote sensing. Remote sensing is advantageous when monitoring large areas or inaccessible land, but may over-estimate cover. The Pollinator protocol is best equipped to address questions regarding flower abundance and richness. Similarities among protocols can facilitate synergy across disciplines for more effective monitoring. We emphasize the importance of denoting a clear scale and scope of monitoring objectives before selecting methods.

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Ungulate conservation: Lessons from experimental white-lipped peccary management in agricultural-natural landscape mosaics of the Brazilian Cerrado

Painkow Neto, E.; Silvius, K. M.; Barquero, G.; Neves, D. C.; Fragoso, J. M. V.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.03.716323 medRxiv
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Animal population control is widely used to mitigate conflicts between wildlife and agriculture worldwide. Structured, monitored removals are rare in South America, however, and their consequences for wildlife populations as well as their effectiveness in reducing crop damage are little understood. Using eight years of data from an experimental white-lipped peccary management program in an agricultural mosaic in the Brazilian Cerrado biome, we assess how structured, non-lethal removals affect both peccary demography and second-crop corn damage. Leslie removal models based on 6,619 captured individuals indicated that cumulative removals to approximately 85% of the initial population strongly reduced peccary abundance, with limited demographic compensation despite fluctuations in reproductive output. Corn crop damage, quantified with satellite imagery, declined over time and was correlated with peccary population size. Interannual variation in population growth and juvenile recruitment was poorly explained by climate, fire, or landscape composition. Source-sink dynamics likely play a role in maintaining healthy populations at the regional scale. Together, these results demonstrate that sustained and monitored ungulate removals can reliably reduce population size and agricultural damage, supporting coexistence between wildlife and food crop production in human-dominated tropical landscapes.

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Mapping California's Urban Forest at Scale: An Error-Adjusted Canopy Time Series for Monitoring Change

Pawlak, C. C.; Yost, J. M.; Ventura, J.; Guizan, G.; Arnold, S.; Okin, G. S.; Cavanuagh, K. C.; Fricker, G. A.; Ritter, M. K.; Gillespie, T.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.04.722774 medRxiv
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Statewide tracking of urban tree canopy change is essential for evaluating progress toward policy targets, but detecting real change requires both high-resolution mapping and rigorous uncertainty estimation. We produced a four-year canopy cover time series for all California census-designated places using 60-cm NAIP aerial imagery and a U-Net deep learning model trained with semi-automated LiDAR-derived labels and manually annotated tiles. Canopy cover and change were estimated using stratified, error-adjusted area estimation, enabling comparisons across years. Statewide canopy cover showed a modest negative trend from 2016 to 2022 (Sens slope: -0.60% per year), but confidence intervals included zero across all groups and climate zones, indicating that trends were not statistically distinguishable from no change. Urban canopy cover was consistently lower than non-urban canopy by approximately six percentage points, and canopy cover was highest in the Northern California Coast and lowest in the Southwest Desert. Residential parcels accounted for 55-56% of canopy within incorporated urban areas across all years, indicating that statewide canopy increase goals will require engagement with private landowners. Error adjustment substantially altered canopy estimates relative to raw pixel-count totals, with direct implications for AB 2251 canopy tracking where baselines and targets drawn from unadjusted maps may not reflect true canopy extent. This open-source workflow is transferable to future NAIP acquisition years and other U.S. states, providing a scalable framework for long-term urban forest monitoring.

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Bumble Bee Abundance and Diversity Increase with Intensity of Tallgrass Prairie Restoration Intervention

Kochanski, J. M.; McFarlane, S. L.; Damschen, E. I.; Gratton, C.

2026-03-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.24.713996 medRxiv
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IntroductionHuman land-use intensification and the resulting habitat loss are primary drivers of insect pollinator declines. Habitat restoration offers a promising approach to counteract these declines, yet landscape-level evaluations of bee responses to restoration and management remain limited. We conducted a two-year, landscape-scale study in Wisconsin, USA, to assess how different intensities of tallgrass prairie restoration and management affect bumble bees (Bombus spp.). ObjectivesThis study aimed to determine whether (1) bumble bee abundance and diversity increase with assisted restoration, and (2) outcomes differ between low-(seeded only) and moderate-intensity (seeded and managed with prescribed fire) interventions. MethodsUsing catch-and-release surveys, we measured bumble bee abundance and diversity at 32 sites representing a gradient in restoration intervention: no intervention (unassisted recovery), low intervention, and moderate intervention. ResultsBumble bee abundance and diversity were higher at assisted restoration sites (low and moderate intervention) than at unassisted sites. Although both tended to be greater at moderate than low intervention intensities, these differences were not statistically significant. Bumble bee community composition also differed across intervention intensity, driven by shifts in dominant species (e.g., B. impatiens and B. griseocollis). Rarer taxa, including endangered and vulnerable species, occurred only at assisted restoration sites, with the largest populations at moderate intervention sites. Across all sites, bumble bee responses were strongly and positively associated with floral abundance, but not with semi-natural habitat in the surrounding landscape. ConclusionOur findings demonstrate that assisted grassland restoration can effectively increase bumble bee abundance and diversity, supporting its value as a conservation practice for pollinators. Implications for Practice: (1) Grassland restorations targeting plant communities can successfully support nontarget pollinators across a range of management intensities and landscape contexts. Adding seeds of pollinator-preferred plants could improve restorations with low floral abundance and diversity. (2) Management of existing restorations is important to maintain abundant floral resources and diverse pollinator communities. Because sites varied widely in prescribed fire use, our findings likely represent a conservative estimate of its benefits, and higher intervention intensity (e.g., repeated seeding, regular fire, mechanical or chemical shrub and invasive plants control) may further enhance outcomes for bumble bees.

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Reassessing display behavior from Bels et al. (2025) given the complexity of anthropogenic hybridization and intraspecific diversity in Iguana iguana

van den Burg, M. P.; Thibaudier, J.

2026-03-23 zoology 10.64898/2026.03.19.713079 medRxiv
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Understanding behavioral differences between non-native and closely related endangered species could be important to aid conservation management. In volume 169 of Zoology, Bels et al. (2025) reported on their comparison of display-action-patterns (DAP) between native Iguana delicatissima and non-native iguanas present on islands of the Guadeloupe Archipelago in the Caribbean Lesser Antilles. Here, we address conceptual and methodological concerns about their work and reanalyze their data given our proposed corrections, primarily a literature-informed adjustment of their "species" category. We additionally utilize online videos from South American mainland I. iguana populations, from where the non-native iguanas in the Guadeloupe Archipelago originate, to better understand the different DAPs between native and non-native iguanas in the Guadeloupe Archipelago. Significant differences in DAP characteristics among "species" categories (native I. delicatissima, non-native iguanas, and hybrids) show that Bels et al. (2025) oversimplified their data analyses by merging all non-native populations into one group. This result indicates the presence of behavioral variation among subpopulations within widely hybridizing iguanid populations, which has been poorly studied. Additionally, videos from mainland populations across two major mitochondrial clades of Iguana iguana show that non-native iguanas on Guadeloupe retained DAP characteristics of those populations from which they originate. We discuss these findings in light of the proposed hypotheses put forward by Bels et al. (2025), of which two can be excluded. Overall, our reanalysis shows that studies focusing on characteristics within settings of complex hybridization in diverse species should acknowledge this complexity.

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Bayesian spatial prediction of three medically important tick species in Illinois

Hussain, A.; Bravo de Guenni, L.; Mateus-Pinilla, N. E.; Smith, R. L.

2026-04-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.16.719082 medRxiv
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Tick-borne diseases are now reported from nearly every county in Illinois, and three vector tick species (Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, and Ixodes scapularis) are of particular concern because these are responsible for most of the tick-borne disease transmission in the state. However, active surveillance is patchy, many counties have little or no sampling, and there is no statewide, quantitative map of relative abundance that can be used to anticipate risk in unsampled areas. To address these gaps, we developed Bayesian hierarchical spatial models to estimate the county-level abundance of these three vector tick species in Illinois. Using active surveillance data from 2019-2022, we modeled county-level abundance as a function of climate, land cover, forest fragmentation, and deer habitat suitability. Spatial dependence was captured using a Besag-York-Mollie 2 (BYM2) prior implemented in INLA, along with spatial 5-fold cross-validation to assess predictive performance. A. americanum showed the highest predicted abundance in southern and central Illinois, D. variabilis was widespread but diffuse, and I. scapularis was concentrated in northern and selected central counties. Together, these models provide the first spatial, statewide, uncertainty-aware assessment of tick abundance in Illinois, highlighting priority counties where surveillance lags disease risk.

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Multidecadal changes in land cover across a disturbance gradient in mountain grasslands of Kyrgyzstan

Young, S. C. E.; Watkins, H. V.; Brownlee, S. F.; Yan, H. F.; Cote, I. M.

2026-03-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.24.712710 medRxiv
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Mountain ecosystems face unprecedented pressures from anthropogenic activities and climate change, challenging the productivity of these vital habitats. In the Tien Shan mountains, understanding localized responses to these pressures is often hindered by the coarse spatiotemporal resolutions of available data. To address this, we combined high-resolution satellite imagery (1997-2021) to map land-cover dynamics in the Naryn oblast, Kyrgyzstan across a gradient of grazing intensities. We classified and quantified land-cover distribution over 24 years, investigating the roles of topography, elevation, and anthropogenic disturbances as drivers of change. Our results identify intermediate elevations, high degrees of disturbance, and the interaction between the two as the primary contributors to recent transitions in grassland, forest, and barren habitats. By integrating Landsat analysis-ready data, European Space Agency WorldCover dataset and digital elevation models at fine spatial scales, we provide valuable contemporary and historical landscape and habitat-level insights and a high-resolution framework for disentangling climate-driven shifts from land-use impacts. These findings highlight the urgency of localized management in remote, data-poor regions where rapid environmental change threatens both biodiversity and pastoral livelihoods. Our work serves as a critical baseline for characterizing the adaptability of semi-arid mountain rangelands under escalating global and regional pressures.

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Home range size and population density are negatively correlated in wild felids globally

Bugaud, N.; Anile, S.; Moraru, A.; Devillard, S.

2026-05-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.16.725626 medRxiv
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AimHome range size is a fundamental aspect of animal spatial ecology, and understanding the factors that shape it is important for conservation purposes. Several hypotheses, based on energy needs or competition, assume that home range size negatively correlates with population density. However, this pattern has been little investigated on a global scale, and it remains unclear whether it would stand at both intra- and interspecific levels. To fill this gap, we conducted a global exploration of this relationship at the level of an animal family. Location: Global. Time period: Contemporary. Major taxa studied: Wild Felidae. MethodsIndividual home range size records (n = 1022) and population density estimates (n = 1061) were retrieved from the literature for 23 felid species across the world. We first investigated the interspecific relationship by modelling the median home range size of a species as a function of its median population density. To study the intraspecific relationship, we spatially merged data points based on their spatial or temporal proximity. We then applied a mixed-effects linear model using species as a random factor. ResultsWe found that home range size was negatively associated with population density, at both interspecific (-1.323 {+/-} 0.180, p < 0.001) and intraspecific levels (-0.569 {+/-} 0.201 to - 0.537 {+/-} 0.201 depending on the merging approach, p < 0.01). Landscape features were also predictors of home range size, without confounding the effect of population density. Main conclusionsSeveral processes likely govern the relationship between home range size and population density: differences in body mass between species may drive the interspecific relationship, whereas the intraspecific pattern is probably explained by conspecific competition. Although more research is needed to quantify their relative contribution, our study highlights a worldwide ecological pattern that exists at multiple biological levels in the wild.