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Landscape Ecology

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Landscape Ecology's content profile, based on 13 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Drivers of space use in a large semi-urban feral ungulate under seasonally fluctuating resource conditions

Bhattacharjee, D.; Flay, K. J.; Mumby, H. S.; Zhang, J.; Wu, J.; McElligott, A. G.

2026-06-08 zoology 10.64898/2026.06.03.729827 medRxiv
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Resource scarcity prompts animals to adjust their space use in ways that enhance their survival. In wild herbivores, seasonal habitat shifts are well studied; however, little is known about how large herbivores navigate human-dominated landscapes under fluctuating resource conditions. In Hong Kong, feral water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis; henceforth buffalo) experience declines in body condition score during the dry season. While buffalo expand spatial ranges in the dry season, whether this expansion reflects access to improved ecological conditions, and how key anthropogenic factors (like distance to roads and human density) further influence space use, remains understudied. We observed six buffalo herds (n=92 known individuals) across one wet (July-September 2023) and one dry (January-March 2024) season. We recorded herd locations and extracted remotely sensed habitat and environmental data. We used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy of vegetation productivity and included elevation, distance to roads, and human density as additional predictors. We hypothesized that dry-season space use would shift toward higher vegetation productivity, and that anthropogenic factors would have weak influence on space use due to the adaption of buffalo in human-dominated landscapes. We found that buffalo used areas with higher vegetation productivity and higher elevation in the dry season than in the wet. Distance to roads and human density had no detectable effect. Our findings reveal that space use by a large herbivore like buffalo in human-dominated landscapes is strategic and resource driven, and that these seasonal shifts may have important implications for local biodiversity and human-animal interactions.

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Mapping human-macaque encounter potential by integrating visitor-use and macaque-use intensity in Kamikochi, Japan

Otani, Y.; Tsuchihashi, A.; Sugita, S.; Fukui, H.; Shikano, Y.; Matsumoto, T.

2026-07-31 zoology 10.64898/2026.07.30.741901 medRxiv
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Managing visitor-wildlife interactions in high-use protected areas requires identifying not only where visitors concentrate but also where visitor use overlaps with wildlife space use. We estimated relative human- macaque encounter potential in Kamikochi, Chubu Sangaku National Park, Japan, where Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata) and visitors use the same frontcountry landscape. We integrated Mobile Spatial Statistics derived from mobile phone network data, trail-camera counts, and direct-follow location data from macaques along a frontcountry-backcountry gradient. Broad-scale 500-m grid estimates of daytime visitor presence for the 2023 and 2024 open seasons were allocated to 50-m trail sections and adjusted using counts from 10 trail cameras. Automated video counts based on YOLO11 and ByteTrack showed high agreement with manual counts of 100 validation videos (MAE = 0.10 persons/video, MAPE = 1.26%, exact agreement rate = 92.0%). Visitor-use and macaque-use data were converted into kernel density surfaces, and encounter potential was calculated as their normalized product. High encounter potential was concentrated in the central frontcountry: 87.1% of areas with index values [≥] 0.9 fell within the frontcountry and 12.9% within the backcountry. Areas with high visitor use or high macaque use alone did not necessarily show high encounter potential when the two distributions were spatially offset. These results show that spatial overlap provides management information not captured by visitor counts alone. Relative encounter potential can help prioritize patrols, visitor messaging, viewing management, and other interventions in protected areas where wildlife does not consistently avoid heavily used visitor spaces.

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West Nile virus response to mosquito and avian biodiversity in rural environments

Marcolin, L.; Ceci, N.; Gobbo, F.; Montarsi, F.; Chiarello, G.; Dorigatti, I.; Di Marco, M.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734801 medRxiv
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Context. The relationship between biodiversity and zoonotic disease risk is a central topic in community ecology, yet empirical evidence in Europe remains scarce and often contradictory compared to North American studies. Addressing this gap is fundamental to better anticipate zoonotic disease dynamics. Objectives. We investigated the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) in Veneto (Italy), a major European hotspot. Because this vector-borne pathogen is primarily transmitted by Culex mosquitoes and maintained by several avian hosts, we analysed how multiple facets of both avian and mosquito biodiversity influence its transmission. Methods. Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) trained on longitudinal entomological and ornithological surveillance data, we modelled the probability of WNV presence in mosquito pools as a function of host and vector community structure. To isolate the effects of biodiversity, we explicitly controlled for climatic and landscape covariates. Results. In agricultural landscapes, we found that higher avian diversity leads to higher viral presence, driven by the dominance of highly competent synanthropic hosts. Conversely, a dilution effect emerges across the broader regional landscape where areas of higher ecological integrity allow for more complex and functionally diverse avian communities. Furthermore, we identified significant vector-mediated regulation, where high abundances of mammophilic vectors effectively suppress viral prevalence through larval competition. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the dilution effect is a property of intact ecosystems which can be lost, or even locally reversed, in anthropogenically altered environments. Because such habitat degradation fundamentally alters zoonotic transmission dynamics, landscape planning must prioritize ecological restoration. Ultimately, embedding these practices into One Health strategies represents a proactive approach to mitigating disease emergence.

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Climatic and non-climatic drivers of rangeland vegetation change in Nepal

Shrestha, U. B.; Joshi, S.

2026-07-10 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.09.737421 medRxiv
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Nepal's rangelands provide multiple benefits, including support for pastoral livelihoods and alpine biodiversity, regulation of water and soil nutrients, and sequestering carbon. Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are altering these rangelands, leading to vegetation and biodiversity change. However, national-scale assessments of rangeland change are limited in Nepal. This study quantified rangeland changes at multiple spatial scales and assessed the climatic and non-climatic drivers of rangeland change. About 80.7% of Nepal's high-altitude rangeland (> 2,000m) outside protected areas showed no significant change. Among areas exhibiting significant annual maximum NDVI trends, 383,281 ha (18.6%) showed positive and 14,702 ha (0.7%) showed negative trends, corresponding the ratio of increase in vegetation greenness and decline in vegetation greenness to 26:1. Climate predicted positive trends covered 627,184 ha (30.5%), whereas residual trends caused by non-climatic drivers covered 94,656 ha (4.6%). Climate induced negative trends covered 47,609 ha (2.3%) while residual trends were observed in 6,260 ha (0.3%). Negative trend pixels were concentrated mainly within the 3,000 to 5,000 m elevation band, with Karnali Province recording the highest proportional climate predicted decline in vegetation greenness (3.4%). At the municipality scale, rangeland change showed no significant relationship with grazing pressure derived from gridded livestock data, suggesting that grazing pressure alone did not explain the non-climatic vegetation signal. These spatially explicit, nationally consistent results identify where rangeland change is occurring and help distinguish climatic and non-climatic drivers of rangeland vegetation change, providing evidence to support targeted rangeland management under Nepal's federal governance structure.

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Ecosystem service gradients at protected area borders reveal multiple patterns and prevalent management conflicts

Gonzalez-Garcia, A.; Neyret, M.; Lopez-Tejedor, A.; Prima, M. C.; Si-Moussi, S.; Renaud, J.; Gueguen, M.; Lavorel, S.

2026-07-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.30.735453 medRxiv
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Protected areas cannot halt biodiversity loss in isolation; integrating them with surrounding human-dominated landscapes is critical. However, this integration is challenged by substantial landscape heterogeneity at their borders, hindering our understanding of cross-border changes in ecosystem service provision. We introduce a novel framework for characterizing these dynamics by analyzing ecosystem service gradients along protected area borders. For 16 protected areas in the French Alps, we assessed 12 ecosystem services using a mix of established biophysical models and novel connectivity-based models for mobile species. These were aggregated into three stakeholder-driven domains reflecting respectively rural, cultural, and urban management priorities. Automated polynomial regression analysis classified borders into five gradient types. The most common were 'Decreasing Gradients', representing a decline in ecosystem services outside the protected area, and 'Increasing Gradients', with the opposite pattern. Our analysis reveals these patterns are driven by specific landscape configurations, uncovering frequent trade-offs between the three management priorities, where, for instance, landscapes supporting rural priorities often degrade cultural and urban ones. We also identify key opportunities for synergies, by identifying areas where ecosystem services for all three priority domains increase simultaneously outside the protected area. This spatially explicit typology provides a powerful diagnostic tool for designing targeted interventions, such as prioritizing habitat restoration where ecosystem services decline or managing agricultural landscapes to mitigate conflicts across management priorities, supporting a more effective integration of protected areas into the wider landscape.

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Global threat abatement potential for terrestrial vertebrates

Ridley, F. A.; Bennun, L.; Brooks, T. M.; Butchart, S. H. M.; Dales, M. W.; Hawkins, F.; Jimenez, R. R.; Macfarlane, N. B. W.; Mcgowan, P. J.; Starnes, T.; Tarr, S.; Turner, J. A.; Baisero, D.; Chanson, J.; Cox, N.; Menon, V.; Neam, K.; Pacifici, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Rodriguez, J. P.; Rondinini, C.; Mair, L.

2026-06-16 zoology 10.64898/2026.06.12.731583 medRxiv
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1.AimThe Species Threat Abatement and Restoration (STAR) metric was developed to support setting and measuring progress towards science-based targets for species conservation, in alignment with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The STAR metric quantifies the potential reduction in species global extinction risk achievable through actions to abate threats (START) and restore habitat (STARR). The STAR metric is used across multiple sectors to assess contributions to nature-positive species outcomes and implement action for biodiversity. Here we present a substantially enhanced global estimate of START for terrestrial vertebrates. Developed in response to user demand, this work integrates advancements in methodology and data quality, increased spatial resolution, and addition of reptile species. LocationGlobal Time PeriodCurrent Major taxa studiedTerrestrial vertebrates MethodsSTART was estimated at 1km2 resolution for 9,100 species of threatened and Near Threatened birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles, using IUCN Red List assessments (version 2025-1) and area of habitat (AOH) maps generated using an advanced data-driven methodology and satellite-derived land-cover data. AOH maps were validated using a two-stage protocol using species observation data. ResultsThe six countries with the highest estimated START scores, and therefore the largest individual potential to reduce global extinction risk via tackling threats nationally were Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia, Mexico, Ecuador and Colombia (each contributing over 5% of global estimated START). The threat with the greatest individual potential to reduce extinction risk was annual and perennial non-timber crops (21.2% of global START). Main conclusionsTargeted actions to tackle a few high-impact threats in a few discrete locations, and cumulative effort across multiple areas with lower individual potential, are both required to meaningfully reduce species extinction risk through threat abatement. This global scale estimation of START enables consistent scoping of conservation opportunity over large areas and provides the critical initial data to support planning and action.

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The effects of fox movement and landscape heterogeneity on the spread of sarcoptic mange in urban settings

Dimitrov, N.; Gelmi-Candusso, T. A.; Krkosek, M.; Fortin, M.-J.

2026-06-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.24.734291 medRxiv
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ContextThe movement of vertebrate hosts across urbanized landscapes can play a key role in the transmission of direct-contact diseases. Understanding how wildlife hosts move in urban landscapes, and how transmission is affected by their landscape-constrained and disease-altered movements, is imperative for better predicting the spread of disease. ObjectiveWe assess how the movement of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) according to landcover type, and their infection status, affect the spread of mange (caused by Sarcoptes scabiei) in an urbanized landscape. MethodsWe developed a mange transmission model (MTM) using an agent-based model to compare two movement behaviours of foxes in Scarborough (Ontario, Canada): random and landcover-based. We further assessed the effects of movement on disease transmission by considering the foxs infection status and comparing a range of movement probability scenarios. We quantified the number of effective contact events and the effective reproduction number (Re) according to each scenario. ResultsWe found that both landcover-dependent movement and infection status influenced the spread of mange within fox populations. The number of effective contact events and effective reproduction number Re was greatest when landscape heterogeneity was included in the model and foxes moved through paths of least resistance to movement, and when susceptible and infected foxes had an equal probability of leaving a fragmented habitat patch. ConclusionsOur findings suggest that mange spread may be accelerated along movement corridors in fragmented, heterogenous landscapes. As urban areas expand and remnant habitat within these is further lost and animals are relegated to fewer movement pathways, disease transmission may increase.

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Bird functional dispersion predicts dengue vector presence across tropical working landscapes in Costa Rica

Levey, D. R.; Glidden, C. K.; Shragai, T.; Chamberlin, A. J.; Fay, R. L.; Chaves-Gonzalez, L. E.; Figueroa-Sandi, J.; Lazaro, J. E.; Vasquez, V. N.; Moreira-Soto, R. D.; Osawa-Pivovarov, K.; Daily, G. C.; Rojas-Araya, D.; Troyo, A.; Mordecai, E. A.

2026-08-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.26.747376 medRxiv
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Identifying reliable indicators of dengue vector habitat is critical for proactive surveillance and spatially targeted vector control. Bird communities are sensitive to habitat quality and landscape condition, and their functional diversity may track ecological conditions that support Aedes mosquito populations. We tested whether bird functional diversity predicts dengue vector presence across two working landscapes in Costa Rica, comparing bird-based predictors against landscape composition, vegetation structure, and plant diversity. Bird functional dispersion (FDis), the spread of species in multidimensional trait space, was the top-ranked predictor for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus larval presence and for adult Ae. aegypti, outperforming all other predictor classes. Probability of presence declined with increasing FDis, where functionally homogeneous bird communities, characteristic of disturbed landscapes, co-occur with higher vector presence, consistent with shared habitat filtering. Functional diversity estimations may offer a practical signal for identifying habitats at elevated dengue vector risk.

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Nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation shape the distribution of Aedes sierrensis in North America

Mordecai, E. A.

2026-07-30 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.28.741332 medRxiv
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Understanding the ecological determinants of species ranges is a central goal of ecology. Novel tools like global datasets and machine learning models allow us to describe species ranges with increasing scope and accuracy, and to develop and test ecological hypotheses about their determinants. Here, I focus on the widespread nuisance mosquito and dog heartworm vector Aedes sierrensis, a tree hole-breeding mosquito that is widespread and abundance within its native range in western North America, and develop species distribution models (SDMs) to characterize the species range and its environmental determinants. I find that the species range is highly predictable from long-term average bioclimatic variables. Temperature and precipitation were the primary determinants: suitability was highest at wet-season average temperatures of 0 - 10{degrees}C, minimum temperatures of -5 - 5{degrees}C, and summer temperatures of 8 - 22{degrees}C in environments with adequate seasonal rainfall concentrated in the winter. After accounting for climate, land cover variables showed minimal importance for prediction, but suitability was higher in forests and outside of urban areas. The results are consistent with ecological knowledge of the Ae. sierrensis life cycle from field observations and previous laboratory experiments, suggesting that individual physiological constraints scale up to determine species distributional limits.

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Beyond green cover: Greenspace morphology and configuration predict heat-related illness in Arizona

Wang, H.; Li, S.; Gholami, S.; Hoover, J.; Waller, M.; Ernst, K.

2026-07-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.08.26357485 medRxiv
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Residential greenness has been associated with reduced heat-related illness, yet the specific role of greenspace morphology at the neighborhood scale remains insufficiently understood. This study quantified the relationship between heat-related illness and multiple dimensions of greenspace morphology using an eight year (2016-2023) unbalanced panel dataset comprising 19,021 block group year observations across 2,427 census block groups in Arizona, USA. One meter high resolution National Agricultural Imagery Program aerial imagery was classified to calculate greenspace percentage, number of greenspaces, average size, shape complexity, connectedness, and distantness, at the block group level. We applied conditional spatial autoregressive models with a negative binomial distribution to estimate associations between each morphology metric and yearly heat-related illness counts, adjusting for sociodemographic and geographic covariates. We found higher greenspace percentage, aggregation, shape complexity, connectedness, and density were consistently associated with lower heat-related illness risk. A one standard deviation increases in shape complexity corresponded to a 12.4% decrease in expected heat-related illness counts (IRR=0.876, 95% CI: 0.834-0.921). Similarly, increases in greenspace percentage (14.6% decrease; IRR=0.855, 95% CI: 0.827-0.885), number of greenspace patches (3.7% decrease; IRR=0.963, 95% CI: 0.937-0.990), average size (4.5% decrease; IRR=0.955, 95% CI: 0.923-0.989), and connectedness (5.5% decrease; IRR=0.945, 95% CI: 0.918-0.972) were all protective. In contrast, larger inter greenspace distances were associated with increased heat-related illness risk (6.1% increase; IRR=1.061, 95% CI: 1.033-1.091). Our findings highlight the critical importance of multiple dimensions of greenspace morphology in mitigating heat-related health risks. These results suggest that heat reduction planning with greening initiatives should consider not only the amount of greenspace but also its spatial configuration to maximize cooling and result in health benefits.

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Maps of historical forests in France and their temporal continuity since the first half of the 19th century

Dupouey, J.-L.; Berges, L.; Leroy, N.; Lafite, R.; Archaux, F.; Auge, V.; Bec, R.; Bellifa, M.; Bourguignon, J.; Buridant, J.; Burlin, B.; Caubet, S.; Chaleat, A.; Chauchard, S.; Cordonnier, T.; Decocq, G.; Delcamp, M.; Fleury, J.; Gaudin, S.; Gervaise, A.; Gautier, G.; Guilloux, J.; Hamel, A.; Heintz, W.; Janssen, P.; Labonne, S.; Lair, P.; Lallemant, T.; Landmann, G.; Larrieu, L.; Martin, H.; Michel, C.; Mollier, S.; Panaïotis, C.; Renaux, B.; Rochel, X.; Salvaudon, A.; Thomas, M.; Touzet, T.; Vallauri, D.

2026-07-23 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.22.736859 medRxiv
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AbstractIntegrating environmental history is essential for understanding present-day ecosystem dynamics and guiding modern conservation strategies, particularly under the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. This data paper presents the nationwide digitisation and vectorisation of the French General Ordnance survey map (1818-1866), capturing the countrys forest cover at its historical minimum (a pivotal moment known as the "forest transition"). The original manuscript sheets surveyed at a 1:40,000 scale (976 sheets) were scanned, georeferenced and vectorised. They offer higher thematic accuracy than the older Cassini map and are far more feasible for nationwide vectorisation than the highly detailed Napoleonic cadastre. The area-weighted mean survey date is 1843, and the dataset covers 99.6% of modern mainland France. To correct for paper deformation, historical surveying errors and coordinate system transformations, a rigorous workflow was established. This shifted from a global 6-parameter affine transformation (root mean square error of 60 m) to a local elastic transformation based on thousands of control points, for 21% of the territory, which reduced the positioning error to 34 m. We assessed data quality by comparing the General Ordnance Survey maps with the Napoleonic cadastre--the standard reference for 19th-century land-use data--across more than 600 municipalities. The correlation between the two sources regarding forest cover percentages was exceptionally high (r>0.9). Because forests formed large, compact blocks of significant strategic interest to military engineers, they were mapped with high precision. Localised inaccuracies were primarily found in remote areas, most notably in the mountains. The resulting historical vector layer was intersected with contemporary forest data (BD Foret(R) v2, 2005-2019). Historical polygons smaller than 0.5 ha were filtered out to comply with modern FAO forest definitions. This spatial overlay generated a new dataset detailing four distinct land-use trajectories: . ancient forests (44.8% of present day forest): land classified as forest in both the 19th century and the present day (indicating maximum temporal continuity). . recent forests (55.2% of present day forest): land that was non-forested in the 19th century but has since undergone reforestation. . deforested areas (18.9% of 19th-century forest): land recorded as forest in the 19th century but subsequently converted to other land uses. . stable non-forest areas: land that has remained unforested across both periods. Our results suggest that the forest area of mainland France at its historical minimum should be revised upward to 9.9 million ha. A preliminary analysis further indicates that current spatial variation in forest cover is explained more by land-use dynamics occurring since the forest transition than by the initial extent of forest cover. These two open-access national datasets (the 19th-century forest layer and the land-use transition map) open the door to a better understanding of present-day forests : e.g. their biodiversity, soil quality, tree growth and belowground water quality. Furthermore, they provide decision-support tools for conservation planning. Key messageIn this data paper, we provide a map of 19th-century forests in France based on the digitisation of the military topographic map (1818-1866). By overlaying this historical source with the present-day forest map, we built a second map which allows the identification of ancient forests, recent forests, and deforestation. These maps offer avenues for historical ecology and the design of conservation strategies.

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There is no silver bullet: Tiger corridors do not ensure multispecies carnivore connectivity

Rana, D.; Ramakrishnan, U.

2026-07-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.05.736645 medRxiv
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Connectivity is critical to sustaining endangered carnivores in speciose yet fragmented landscapes such as in the global south. Corridors to mitigate fragmentation are designed based on charismatic species or habitat-based approaches, but their multispecies effectiveness for maintaining functional connectivity remains poorly tested. We combined landscape genetic analyses across five sympatric carnivores - Panthera tigris, Panthera pardus, Prionailurus viverrinus, Felis chaus, and Melursus ursinus, to evaluate how landscape features shape functional connectivity in a globally important felid landscape. We then assessed the efficiency of existing tiger corridors and single-species surrogates for maintaining multispecies functional connectivity. Species exhibited contrasting responses to landscape variables, producing distinct resistance surfaces and connectivity corridors. Spatial similarity of connectivity between species pairs was highly variable (r = 0.14-0.93), but no single species effectively captured connectivity patterns of the broader carnivore community (maximum mean overlap of <0.7 across species). Moreover, genetically optimized corridors were at least 70% more efficient in capturing connectivity compared to existing tiger corridors, demonstrating mismatches between structural and functional connectivity. Our results highlight limitations of surrogate-based corridor planning and demonstrate that integrating multispecies functional connectivity can substantially improve conservation planning in human-dominated landscapes.

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Climate and urbanization structure West Nile virus vector communities: Tools for surveillance under environmental change

Gregory, B. P.; Arsenault-Benoit, A.; Irwin, P.; Price, K. J.; Witmier, B. J.; Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Fritz, M. L.

2026-07-24 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.24.738033 medRxiv
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West Nile virus (WNv) in eastern North America is transmitted primarily by Culex pipiens and Culex restuans, two cryptic vector species whose relative abundance shifts seasonally and across urbanization gradients - gradients that are themselves now shifting under continuing climate change and urban expansion. Because the two species are difficult to separate morphologically and are typically pooled in routine surveillance, this turnover is seldom tracked directly, and agencies lack species-resolved tools to anticipate when, where, and how vector communities will reorganize. Yet the timing of this turnover has been linked to the seasonal timing and intensity of human WNv cases, making it a potentially forecastable correlate of risk. We molecularly identified 9,789 Culex collected over six years, of which 5,808 came from a designed multi-year study in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan region, and the remainder from Philadelphia and Chicago for cross-regional comparison. We combined negative-binomial generalized linear mixed models of species-specific abundance in Baltimore-Washington with Gradient Forest models of compositional turnover across all three regions. The two species diverged along both the urbanization and thermal gradients: Cx. pipiens abundance increased with impervious surface and with temperature, whereas Cx. restuans declined along both. Consequently, highly urbanized areas remained Cx. pipiens-rich across the season, whereas suburban, low-to-moderate-development landscapes exhibited the largest seasonal shifts in community composition. Accumulated degree-days (ADD) and weekly mean temperature were the most consistent drivers of turnover across regions, with the shift from Cx. restuans to Cx. pipiens fastest between 594 and 610 ADD. These patterns translate into three operational tools for WNv management: a climate-based degree-day window that lets agencies forecast the community shift from temperature data before it is detectable in trap composition, identification of suburban landscapes as priority targets for intensified surveillance and early intervention, and species-resolved environmental responses that help anticipate how community composition may shift within these regions as local climate and land-use conditions change. Together they offer a path from reactive surveillance to anticipatory, spatially targeted, and forward-looking management of WNv risk under environmental change. Open Research StatementAll datasets and R scripts used to generate the results and figures in this study will be made publicly available on DRYAD (DOI pending) upon acceptance of the manuscript. Climate data are publicly available from the PRISM Climate Group (PRISM Group, Oregon State University). Landscape predictor datasets are publicly available from the sources cited in Methods (Dewitz 2023; WorldPop 2018; U.S. Census Bureau 2020; Zell & Sanford 2020; Gesch et al., 2018; Didan 2015).

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Geographic structuring of genetic variation differs across two contact zones in the Diglossa carbonaria superspecies

Hiller, A. E.; Faircloth, B. C.; Brumfield, R. T.

2026-07-17 zoology 10.64898/2026.07.14.738252 medRxiv
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Rapid radiations, where species quickly diversify with little to no change in the genetic composition of the taxa, provide unique opportunities to understand the processes underlying lineage divergence, especially when the newly formed species come into contact. This study examines three parapatrically distributed taxa of the Andean Diglossa carbonaria superspecies that differ strikingly in plumage and have been classified as an example of rapid lineage divergence. Using RADSeq data, we characterized the geographic structuring of genetic variation and investigated the possibility of introgressive hybridization at the contact zones between D. humeralis atterima and D. b. brunneiventris in northern Peru and between D. b. brunneiventris and D. carbonaria in Bolivia. We found weak genetic differentiation between D. humeralis atterima and D. b. brunneiventris and low, but diagnosable, differentiation between D. b. brunneiventris and D. carbonaria. At the contact zone between D. humeralis atterima and D. b. brunneiventris, the lack of genetic differentiation did not allow us to determine if hybridization was occurring between the taxa. In contrast, clustering analyses, diagnostic allele identification, and PCA analyses showed geographic patterns consistent with introgressive hybridization at the contact zone between D. b. brunneiventris and D. carbonaria, a geographic region where birds that are intermediate in plumage have been observed. Finally, we found a genetic break within the distribution of D. b. brunneiventris. The genetic divergence across this [~]450 km wide break is greater than that found between D. humeralis atterima and D. b. brunneiventris. Our results add to previous work documenting weak genetic differentiation between taxa that have striking plumage differences, and in showing that plumage color may be a poor phylogenetic marker. Lay SummaryO_LIWe studied three closely related avian taxa in Peru and Bolivia which have different plumages and adjacent ranges to examine how genetically distinct they are. C_LIO_LITo do this, we used RADseq data from 72 flowerpiercers sampled across their ranges to examine their population structure and to test whether the three taxa hybridize where their ranges meet. C_LIO_LIDespite their striking differences in plumage color, the three species showed few genetic differences. In one area where the ranges are adjacent, the groups were so similar that interbreeding could not be confirmed. In another, there was evidence of admixture, supported by observations of birds with intermediate plumage. C_LIO_LIFor these taxa, feather color may not reflect evolutionary relationships, and more extensive genetic sampling is needed to understand how these plumage differences evolved. C_LI

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Pretty Good Yields allow the spatial management of multiple objectives in agricultural landscapes

Kubasch, M.; Costa, M.; Loeuille, N.

2026-07-09 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.06.736684 medRxiv
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In order to feed a growing global population without silencing nature, conceiving agricultural management strategies reconciling yield and conservation goals is key. Using numerical simulations of a metacommunity model, we explore the possibilities for compromise offered by spatial management strategies of farmed areas. Each strategy is characterized by its farming intensity, the proportion of farmed lands and their spatial aggregation. We show that achieving equitable yield-biodiversity compromise is difficult. While conciliatory strategies offering top yield and biodiversity are typically not possible, accepting slightly lower yields (ie, "Pretty Good Yield strategies") allows to recover substantial biodiversity. Such reconciliation possibilities are limited for species with small dispersal. Yield increases mainly through farmland expansion, whereas farming intensity strongly influences biodiversity, increasing it at low intensity before decreasing with further intensification. Finally, we demonstrate that reconciliation is easier if agricultural production relies on biodiversity through ecosystem services.

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From strandline vegetation to embryo dunes: natural sand retention along a heavily urbanized coast

Taelman, C.; Provoost, S.; Batsleer, F.; Bonte, D.; Van Uytvanck, J.

2026-07-15 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.14.738448 medRxiv
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1. Sandy beaches along urbanized coasts are increasingly managed through beach nourishment and hard infrastructure, yet these interventions often constrain natural dune-building processes. Along the Belgian coast, where much of the beach-dune interface is bordered by dikes, promenades and intensive recreation, strandline vegetation may provide an overlooked mechanism for retaining sand and initiating embryo dune development. 2. We assessed the potential for four pioneer dune plant species (Cakile maritima, Calamagrostis arenaria, Elymus farctus and Salsola kali) to establish, develop vegetation cover and contribute to sand accumulation along the Belgian coast. Using field surveys from 2017-2023, LiDAR-derived beach elevation and annual sediment dynamics, we modelled species occurrence and abundance/cover in low-disturbance reference zones and projected these relationships across the wider coastline. 3. Occurrence models identified where abiotic conditions allow plants to establish and persist until the late growing season, whereas zero-inflated abundance/cover models estimated expected vegetation development across environmental gradients. Predicted occurrence was widespread for several species, suggesting that the abiotic gradients modelled here are not the primary constraints on potential establishment across large parts of the coast. In contrast, expected abundance/cover showed stronger species-specific responses, particularly to sand accretion, indicating that sediment dynamics mainly affect post-establishment vegetation development rather than occurrence alone. 4. Independent field measurements of embryo dunes showed positive relationships between vegetation cover and local sand accumulation for all four species. When scaled using spatial predictions of potential abundance/cover, pioneer vegetation could retain substantial volumes of sand, with Cakile maritima contributing the largest share, followed by Salsola kali, Elymus farctus and Calamagrostis arenaria. Estimated volumes depended on assumptions about whether vegetation occurs as dispersed units or aggregated patches. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results show that, even along a heavily urbanized and nourished coastline, abiotic conditions can support strandline vegetation and embryo dune initiation where disturbance is reduced. Management actions such as limiting trampling, adapting beach cleaning and protecting strandline vegetation could enhance the retention of nourished sand and support nature-based coastal defense. Rather than replacing engineered interventions, strandline vegetation may increase the efficiency with which available sediment is retained within the beach-dune system.

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Modeling two decades of elevational change in endemic bird densities in Hawaiis Kau Rainforest

Patton, P. T.; Judge, S. W.; Royle, J. T.; Sillett, T. S.

2026-08-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.20.746003 medRxiv
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Protected areas are vital to the recovery of endangered species. Of the 24 remaining endemic passerines in Hawaii, 16 species are endangered or critically endangered. Yet protected areas in the archipelago are changing as a result of climate change and biological invasions. For example, the non-native southern house mosquito (Culex quinquefasciatus), the primary vector of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), has been encroaching upward as higher elevations warm. How the ranges of endemic birds have also shifted their range upward in the Ka[u] Rainforest, the largest native forest on the Island of Hawaii, is not well understood. We used hierarchical distance sampling to characterize how population density has changed from 2002 to 2024 for eight endemic bird species in the Ka[u] Rainforest. For five species, the most parsimonious model included an interaction between year and a quadratic elevation effect. Species that were most common at lower elevations in 2002, e.g., Apapane (Himatione sanguinea), tended to be most common at mid-elevations by 2024. Species that were already most common at higher elevations, such as Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) and Hawaii [A]kepa (Loxops coccineus), tended to decline in density. For example, Iiwi density at 1,530 m declined from 3.31 birds per ha (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.67-4.11) to 1.34 birds per ha (95% CI: 1.05-1.71), and Hawaii [A]kepa were completely extirpated from elevations below 1,530 m by 2024. Our results demonstrate how the elevational ranges of endemic species have shifted in response to climate change, biological invasions, and habitat degradation. Translating these results into conservation measures may require a more thorough investigation of the causal mechanisms of these range shifts with finer scale habitat data, under the same hierarchical modeling framework.

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When suitable habitat is not enough: climate change, habitat loss, and dispersal limitation increase the vulnerability of bald-headed uakaris (Cacajao sp.) in the Amazon Rainforest

Ennes Silva, F.; Mourthe, I.; Plaza Pinto, M.; Rabelo, R. M.; dos Santos Junior, M. A.; Borges, L. H. M.; Diogenes, L. C. R.; Marsh, L. K.; Alvares Oliveira, M.; Ribas, C. C.; Boubli, J. P.

2026-07-03 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.02.736086 medRxiv
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Aims: Species' distributions are determined by the interplay between ecological niche and dispersal ability, constrained by biogeographical barriers. Bald-headed uakaris (Cacajao spp.) are highly specialized primates often associated with seasonally flooded forests. In this study, we used ecological niche models to assess changes in habitat suitability and geographic distribution of uakari species under future scenarios. Location: Western Amazonia. Methods: We integrated ecological niche models, current deforestation data, and dispersal ability to estimate habitat suitability under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results: Our models project shifts in suitable conditions for all species. Three of the five species are projected to experience substantial reductions ([&ge;]62%) in suitable habitat conditions within their current ranges by 2050 under both future scenarios. Across the western Amazonia, up to 219,189 km2 and 211,276 km2 of land are projected to be unsuitable within the uakari ranges under the intermediate and very high emissions scenarios, respectively. This is particularly relevant for C. calvus, C. rubicundus, and C. ucayalii. At the species level, the uakaris may lose between 343 km2 and 84,531 km2 of their ranges in the intermediate scenario and 858 km2 and 76,216 km2 in the very high scenario. Shifts in suitability due to climate change are expected to vary from 6 to 191 km in the intermediate scenario and from 5 to 168 km in the very high scenario. Furthermore, the uakaris may lose between 0.5% and 8% of their current ranges due to deforestation in all scenarios. Main conclusions: Our findings reveal a high sensitivity of the uakaris to climate change impacts. It is projected that all species may experience contractions in the suitable areas and spatial suitability within their ranges by 2050, underscoring climate change as a relevant threat to these taxa.

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Diversity of Mammal Fauna in a Remnant of the Atlantic Forest in the Middle of a Megalopolis

Furtado, M.; Goncalves, A. F.; Fernandes, M. S.; Porfirio, G. E. O.; Camargo, M. M. d.

2026-06-08 zoology 10.64898/2026.06.05.730359 medRxiv
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A remnant Atlantic Forest fragment within Sao Paulos urban environment supports six mammal species, with Didelphis being most abundant, while maintaining natural temporal activity patterns and successful reproduction, demonstrating the conservation value of small protected areas within megacities for preserving native wildlife despite intense anthropic pressure. The Forest Reserve of the Institute of Biosciences (FRIB) is a remnant of the Atlantic Forest located at the University of Sao Paulo, city of Sao Paulo campus, in Brazil. Despite urban pressures such as altered food resources, pollution, pathogens, and interactions with invasive and domestic species, several wildlife species persist, demonstrating adaptability to urban environments. This study aimed to sample the mammal species diversity of FRIB using camera traps. A total of 367 records of six mammal species were obtained over 107 days of sampling, between June and November 2024, resulting in 7,872 hours of sampling effort. The species recorded were Callithrix jacchus, Callithrix penicillata, Didelphis aurita, Didelphis albiventris, and unidentified species of the orders Chiroptera and Rodentia. Didelphis sp. was the most recorded genera with 201 records. These results highlight the significance of this forest fragment in protecting wild animals in an environment facing intense anthropic pressure. ResumoA Reserva Florestal do Instituto de Biociencias (FRIB) e um remanescente da Mata Atlantica situado na Universidade de Sao Paulo, em Sao Paulo, Brasil. Apesar das pressoes urbanas, como mudancas nos recursos alimentares, poluicao, patogenos e interacoes com especies invasoras ou domesticas, diversas especies de animais selvagens continuam existindo, evidenciando sua capacidade de adaptacao aos ambientes urbanos. O objetivo deste estudo foi amostrar a diversidade de especies de mamiferos da FRIB atraves de armadilhas fotograficas. Durante um periodo de 107 dias de amostragem, de junho e novembro de 2024, foram obtidos 367 registros de seis especies diferentes de mamiferos, totalizando 7.872 horas de esforco. As especies registradas foram Callithrix jacchus, Callithrix penicillata, Didelphis aurita, Didelphis albiventris, alem de especies nao identificadas das ordens Chiroptera e Rodentia. Didelphis sp. foi o genero com maior numero de registros (n=201). Esses resultados ressaltam a importancia desse fragmento florestal na protecao da fauna selvagem em um ambiente que enfrenta intensa pressao antropica.

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Small scale habitat components as key drivers of biodiversity in urban park design

Trigos-Peral, G.; Reyes Lopez, J. L.

2026-07-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.30.735471 medRxiv
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Urban green spaces are increasingly recognised as important refuges for biodiversity, yet their ecological value depends strongly on design and management. Here, we investigate how fine-scale structural and microhabitat components shape urban ant assemblages, using ants as indicators of broader arthropod responses to urbanisation. Ant communities were sampled in twelve urban green spaces in Cordoba (southern Spain) over a ten-year period (2004 to 2013) using pitfall traps, alongside detailed characterisation of vegetation structure and ground-layer microhabitats. In total, 38 species and 25,578 individuals were recorded. Microhabitat variables explained 58% of the variation in species occurrence. Community differences among microhabitats were driven primarily by nestedness, with dense herbaceous cover acting as a core habitat and edge-related components contributing disproportionately to beta diversity. Tree abundance showed a unimodal relationship with species richness, with maximum diversity at intermediate densities, while shrub and lawn cover had weak or inconsistent effects. Fine-scale elements such as leaf litter, stones, woody debris, and small bare-ground patches strongly influenced species occurrence by providing thermal refugia, nesting substrates, and foraging opportunities. The invasive Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) exhibited strong but spatially restricted dominance and species-specific negative effects on native ants, emphasising the role of habitat context in mediating invasion impacts. Our results demonstrate that urban biodiversity is maximised by enhancing fine-scale habitat heterogeneity rather than increasing green cover alone. We highlight practical design principles for urban green infrastructure that prioritise structural diversity and ground-layer complexity to support resilient arthropod communities.